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Non-Tech : Tyco International Limited (TYC)

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To: RGM who wrote (3597)10/26/2002 6:55:43 PM
From: rich evans  Read Replies (1) of 3770
 
We were fooled by Tyco estimates. Besides the skimming, two things were misrepresented or omitted by Swartz/Koz. They are taxes and Tycom. Tax rate used was 18.5. Now we know tax rate should have been 10% higher. That is about 80 mill a quarter or 4 cents a share.Tycom cash restructure costs of 460 mill not factored in by Swartz in cash flow roll forwards. They knew they were shutting it down. These restructure costs are why cash flow in Q1 are 0-300 mill depending on timing of shutdown expense.Other cash restructure costs (130 milll) also not put into cash roll forwards. Probably shutting down PCB factory. Tycom in 2001 Q4 did 96 mill in profits or 5 cents a share/Q. Now a 76 mill loss and soon to be shutdown. Taxes and tycom are main reason for lower earnings and cashflow and equal 10cents/share/Q. Also electronics not recovering as hoped by now but stable from here. Mobile 3G has not happened and RBOCs have conversion from circuits to IP on hold until debt paid. Rest of businesses fine and slowly growing and very profitable. Taxes and Tycom are the culprits and Swartz misled on these to paint too high cashflow and earnings estimates for 2003 IMO. WS week guest put 40%? of fund assets in tyco. Anybody see program.
Rich
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