re: Maudlin - Everything you need to know in 4 sentences...
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[..."Earnings are $26.74, that is, until S&P deducts option expenses and pension liabilities from the companies in their own index, and then earnings drop to $18.48 a share.
This is a Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio of 48.6 on the S&P 500, as of the close today.
This is clearly still stock market bubble territory, and is why a resumption of a bull market is not in our near future.
No bull market has ever started from such high valuation levels."]
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What more needs be said ?
We've spoken to these issue's here for some time now.
Very similar conclusion vis a vie` Bill Gross's famous "Born to Lose" essay a few months back.
PS: Europe has an even greater percentage of defined benefit plans than the US.
It still remains a valuation issue... quality of earnings, veracity of the numbers AND the accounting methods; are why there is still unquestionably a valuation contraction underway.
DOW 5000/S&P 500 - sans any significant Rogue Wave Events within 30 mos imho.
Gold as it always has, does, or every will... needs only a miniscule portion of Cash on the sidelines, or money rotating out of Bonds & Equity funds to flow to the sector to dramatically ramp values.
When, not if... as we are just now seeing a metamorphisis from paper to hard assets.
The Housing Bubble/Nesting move is just the first sign of a traditional market cycle.
Commodities and hard assets will soon have their day in the sun; as they have, many, many times, through out history.
Cycles... recognizing the coming final blow off of this debt & paper oriented speculative mania and the natural shift back to hard & commodity oriented assets shouldn't be as hard as it seems...but, evidently; both mania's and old habits die hard....but, die they will ~
...the major problem we (Goldbuggers) will face imho (vbg) - is to exercise the patience necessary to get that final 90% $-valuation move that traditionally occurs within the last 10% timeframe of the cycle - when we enter that parabolic speculative updraft. |
