Brazil election looks like almost a done deal
I'm no defender of socialism. You just have to visit some socialist state in Eastern Europe to get a real idea of how well it operates. Capitalism works best, but the guys with the dough have to show why it's best they keep control of money. IMF loans spiraling out of control, widespread corruption, total disregard for the population at large and you can expect socialist challengers in any real democracy. Fortunately Brazil is an excellent example of a democracy..
national.com
One wonders why other nations cannot face the truth -g-
Socialist political challengers serve a good purpose I suppose. In real democracies they are the quality check of the capitalist challengers.
My first recommendation for Lula would be a pareto chart of the IMF loans to see where all the money went. Then some tough negotiations with the IMF crossing off any money that was mis spent. Pursuing wrongdoers for recovery of these monies could be a separate task.
If the IMF or other big guys start causing trouble, just export more Uranium to help the balance of payments. That should get some co-operation going -g-
news.ft.com
questions being asked about Lula
By Richard Lapper and Raymond Colitt in Sa~o Paulo
Published: October 25 2002 22:01 | Last Updated: October 25 2002 22:01
Brazil will on Sunday almost certainly elect a leftwing president. Should the world worry or will the fears about a leftward lurch in the 11th largest economy prove overdone? Could Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, the former trade unionist known as Lula, turn out to be another version of the millennium bug?
One of the main reasons for concern is the history of Mr da Silva's Workers' party (PT). Formed by militant trades unionists, progressive, mainly Catholic community activists and former guerrillas, the party fought its first election in 1982 on the slogan: "Vote PT - the rest are bourgeois."
During the 1980s, it stood for such uncompromising socialist politics as nationalisation and radical land reform. Large numbers of its activists still favour this approach. So do its main trade union backers.
Does that mean Brazilians are voting for full-blooded socialism?
No. The PT has gradually moved towards the centre. The party leadership has embraced more moderate policies typically associated with European social democracy. It has favoured the maintenance of a market economy for more than 10 years and has dropped more extreme policies. The PT no longer favours suspending foreign debt payments, for example.
In the past two years, it has supported policies designed to keep inflation low and it favours tight fiscal control.
This year it has agreed to maintain the 3.75 per cent of gross domestic product primary fiscal surplus for 2003 agreed with the International Monetary Fund in August. In the past few weeks advisers have said they will back moves to give greater independence to the central bank.
Also, the party's leadership has taken a tough line against its more extreme supporters. In the early 1990s it expelled two far-left groups that maintained separate organisations within the party (both ran separate presidential campaigns against Lula this year). The party's majority tendency that supports Lula and José Dirceu, its president, won 55 per cent of the votes at a national congress held last year. Its opponents are divided into at least four leftwing tendencies. Sixty-five of its 91 deputies are moderates who support the leadership.
Can we expect any radicalism at all?
In some areas, the government is likely to favour more state interventionism (but so would José Serra, the pro-government candidate). For example, Mr da Silva has himself indicated he could seek to renegotiate contracts that govern utility prices. On trade, Mr da Silva has warned that the Free Trade Association of the Americas (FTAA) is a policy of "annexation" rather than one of integration. The PT is also likely to maintain or even increase tariff levels to protect strategic industries such as electronics. It is also likely to benefit domestic companies in international public works projects.
But are they ready to govern?
In some ways. The PT has been reasonably effective as an administrator of Brazilian cities and states. The PT has control of more than 180 cities and towns. In many parts of the country, PT mayors and governors are working successfully with private business, many of whose leaders have come to share the party's concerns about slow growth, income inequality and poor public services.
The PT is also making alliances with more experienced politicians and business people, and will seek the help of outsiders to form the economic team. José Alencar, Mr da Silva's running mate, is a businessman who runs one of the country's biggest textile companies. The PT is the largest single force in the lower house, has alliances with a clutch of smaller parties and looks set to win the support of most of the mainstream Democratic Movement party (PMDB), a large middle-of-the-road party that has supported Mr Serra in the election campaign. It should be able to assemble a majority in Congress.
There is still a worry about its ability to manage the extremely tough economic challenges. In an adverse international environment these would be difficult challenges for any government. Expectations from a population voting for change are high. Yet if the government fails to maintain fiscal austerity, it could find its debt burden or inflation - the economic phenomenon that has dogged the country in the past - spiralling out of control. |
