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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA
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To: Killswitch who wrote (14862)10/27/2002 1:19:36 PM
From: robert b furman  Read Replies (1) of 19219
 
Hi Brian,

Keep in mind the slow down in auto sales are coming off a tremendous sales rate brought on by the 0.0% incentives of 01.

2000 was an all time record with annual sales rates near 18 million units.

With 01 slowing slightly - the 0.0% for the last 90 days surprised everyone by bringing in annual sales rates of 17.2 million.

This year looks like it will be the third best year after- 00 was #1 and 01 was #2.

So sales rates slowing from the 01, October thru December, Year over Year sales rates, are really more a statistical quirck resulting from 0.0% financing on ALL Vehicles offered back in 01 than they are showing structural weakness in auto salaes.

0.0 has been offered only on 02's and excluding some models that have "hot sales rates".0.0 is only offered for 36 months on some 03's.

Auto makers have a historically low inventory level out there vs high levels one year ago.

It is safe to say manufacturers are wanting to get away from 0.0.

Although they do a great job of selling units - it will be a deterrent when rates do inch up.

The more owners with free money - the harder it will be to get them to refinance into new units with real interest rates involved.

JMHO

Bob
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