FWIW, we were just in Seattle for a few days, visiting gf's dad and some friends. Seattle is in a fairly bad recession (unemployment over 7%, Boeing and tech are hurting, but MSFT/AMZN/COST/SBUX holding up OK). I believe the stats for urban areas are, Bay Area has worst recession, and Seattle is 2nd.
Anyway, the buildup of houses for sale (in West Seattle, far from Boeing) was quite obvious. For-Sale signs everywhere, far more than in my (comparable) neighborhood in San Jose suburbs. This leads me to think that our Bay Area market may actually do relatively OK when housing corrects. Maybe a 20% drop for the $500k-$700k houses, not terrible compared to past appreciation. That ring of hills around the SF Bay creates a huge supply limitation.
By contrast, we were in England this summer visiting my family... wow, you wanna see a real housing bubble, go to England. At the bottom of my parents' garden, they're building 5-bedroom houses on tiny 1/8 acre lots, asking price $750k. Silicon Valley prices. This is the north of England, not London, and median incomes are like half of the Silicon Valley level. And all mortgages in England are adjustable... but still they buy. Unbelievable to me. |
