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Non-Tech : Tyco International Limited (TYC)
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To: Howard Salwen who wrote (3604)10/28/2002 10:13:18 AM
From: rich evans   of 3770
 
TYCO results and recovery will depend on tech electronics recovery.Besides the reduced cash flow to account for the 600 mill in cash restructure expenses, TYCO guidance of 1.50 -1.75 for 2003 reflect the reduction in electronics operating profits and the increased tax rate to 28.5%. Looking at previous electronic results for Q3 and Q4 of 2001 shows that tyco is projecting a reduction in operating profits for 2003 in line with the latest Q4-2002 results. This approximates 600 mill per quarter. Add to that the increased taxes from the tax rate of 28.5 which means another 300 mill in taxes for the year and you get close to a 2.7 billion dollars in reduced profits or 1.35 a share. If the tech economy rebounds and electronics can recover then the guidance for 2003 will be beaten easily, otherwise the company's guidance will be correct at 1.65 or so. So far other tech companies are seeing a flat recovery and continual weakness in telecom and I/T so we could have to wait awhile. Rich
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