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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II
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To: isopatch who wrote (20793)10/28/2002 11:42:19 AM
From: terry richardson  Read Replies (1) of 36161
 
Iso: To my mind Japan rose to prominence by copying US forms of production and improving them and their products. Remember 30 years or so ago all the stories of Japanese delegations touring US factories and snapping away surreptitiously with Nikons at everything in sight. Then they started to produce goods which were better finished and cheaper than goods made in the US or other parts of the world primarily for the US market but also for Europe and the rest of the world. To its everlasting credit the US rolled up its sleeves and competed right back instead of raising protectionist barriers (ok there might have been some). Over time the Japanese had to compete with similar goods manufactured in other countries with lower labor costs, Taiwan, S. Korea, Thailand etc. and had to move production there in order to be able to compete. Now China is entering onto the stage and once again factories are being closed and moved to yet another location with even lower labor costs. That I believe is at least part of the reason why the Japanese are having problems and why they will continue to have problems, coupled of course with their refusal to sort out their banking problems.

As the US goes so will Europe if they are not careful. By enlarging the Common Market to include other countries to the East they will be able to import cheaper labor or more likely export factories to these new member states all in the name of nation building or some such rot. But the loss of good paying jobs will be felt at the lower end of society while the middle class and baby boomer retirees will increasingly reside in subdivisions and apartment complexes located behind walls with security services which were previously uncalled for. That will be the price for Globalization.

The promise of China opening up as the next large market for western goods was addressed yesterday in this link which JWRPhd provided: canada.com{37485C86-02CF-4DC8-BBC9-99C0660D005B}
Which makes the excellent point that basically the goods the Chinese produce for our consumption will also be for theirs and the great Chinese consumer market for western produced goods will eventually prove a myth.

The US and the West may well be planning a retaliation down the road once they control the ME energy by planning to keep the price of energy high in world terms and then introducing manufacturing to the ME, and Central Asia etc which will have cheaper energy and low cost labor and be closer to the European market. It will not however solve the social problems arising in an aging Europe and N. America IMHO.

Call it Globalization fallout I guess.

Regards

T.
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