Gidday Jay. I have drooled over borrowing yen since mid 1995 and 7 years later still haven't done anything about it. It's now a very crowded trench and like you, I get nervous in crowds [feels like being a sheep in an abattoir's yard].
But the temptation remains. My humility keeps me in check. I don't see how I can possibly do better than swarms of Japanese, Koreans, Chinese, Americans all of whom have as much information as I do, can see the obvious as well as I can and are in a better position to both borrow and invest said borrowings. Though they seem to leave big opportunities sitting on the table [or is it in the mousetrap]. Even the odd Hong Kongese with access to China could do better than I can. I'd get the crumbs and the steel boom on the back of my neck.
Japan and the USA can play pixelation games. Their governments are robust. It seems obvious that the US$ and Yen need to go down versus say the NZ$, so I should be able to borrow with impunity, buy appreciating, high return on investment assets - even as simple as a bank deposit in NZ$, then repay the loan in depreciated yen and pay the derisory interest rate with no trouble.
But why doesn't ASBBank Limited do that if it's so easy? They could borrow a $billion, lend it to Kiwis [and expatriate Hong Kongese] to buy houses, stack huge profits and repay the loans to Japan. But they aren't. Or maybe they are.
Meanwhile, there's big stuff going on in Japan. Demographics and social values for a start. As you know, we have a bit to do with Japan via Tarken-san and snowadventures.co.nz and our Japanese 'son' and various comings and goings.
The post WWII work ethic seems still robust. The well-behaved nature seems solid. But Aki-son is dissolute compared with his father. Daughter has dyed hair and likes hanging out snowboarding. They love the Kiwi life-style. They are trying to like nigga-rap. Maybe they do. Whatever is happening, there is less of it - the birth rate is near zero. The population distribution is aging rapidly. Old geezers like me, sitting on the couch, thinking about going out to play golf, ranting in cyberspace, are NOT producing a lot of wealth - not the sort that GDP is measuring anyway.
Japan seems to be filling [or emptying] with people like me. I wouldn't invest in me. But I wouldn't bet my life's savings against me either. I can click mice and catch stuff in my mousetrap. I'm ever watchful for mice. I don't want to be the mouse. Imagine Japan full of people setting mouse traps, sitting on their couch, playing golf, going snowboarding. I'm not sure what that does for their GDP, currency, interest rates etc.
It'll do something. I just don't know what.
Maybe you have got them figured out and those silly Japs are handing you their wealth. Or, maybe they just prefer to leave you to do the investing for them. You know what's up with China and can go rampaging around there, investigating, analyzing. You are comfortable in the USA too. They aren't. Just as I'm not comfortable in Japan or China, so keep my cotton pickin' hands offa them [hiring QUALCOMM and King George II to do the deed for me - they've at least got a lot of Tomahawks, cash flow, know how and stuff].
Maybe that's your niche - fill the gap between the Japs and the Chinese/Yanks. There's something to be said for being a weird brew hybrid human. Did you know QUALCOMM has BREW? They know wassup: qualcomm.com
Okay, it's a full trench you are in, but maybe you are the best.
Mqurice
PS: 'humility' is another word for sheer terror.
I have an uncle who is 91 and he will die having spent many decades since WWII boycotting Japan for their cruelty and the horrors they inflicted on so many people. He has for decades planned on living to 100, so there might well be time to go. Japan is a big thing, with long-period things happening, such as my uncle and the young, dyed, layabouts [not that they are lazy - just relatively - they want to go troppo in NZ, not work until 11 pm]. I don't really understand them, but in any event, think that Hu Jintao and China are so big and going in the right direction, that Japan is likely to become relatively insignificant. |
