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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: Shack who wrote (57913)	10/28/2002 6:14:20 PM
From: mishedlo	Read Replies (1) of 209892

Interesting that Nov expiry is on the earliest possible date. Nov 15th Max Pain - What would screw the most people here? Hmmmm I think it would be a nice selloff for 3-5 days (but not huge) A rally for another 2-3 days to about the Friday before expiry. Then a gap down and fall to precicely max pain on Monday-Tuesday of expiry week. That would screw all the call buyers as of late. The 2-3 day rally back up would screw johnny come lately put buyers (as well as suck more time premium out of front month options), then the fast plunge to max pain at the start of expiry week leaves the max numberof Nov players screwed. If per chance we fall below QQQ 23 I think we rally back up to it during expiry week. That is ONE possible scenario for the criminally minded. There are others. It all depends on whether or not we have been seeing distribution, and I believe we have. Given that pain is 23 and we are not that far off, they can easily prolong the agony for bears by delaying the drop and instead having a steeper one. Front month options here are quite dangerous on both sides. M

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