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Strategies & Market Trends : MARKET INDEX TECHNICAL ANALYSIS - MITA

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To: J.T. who wrote (14870)	10/28/2002 9:15:56 PM
From: James F. Hopkins	Read Replies (1) of 19219

RE> the exact same figure as 1974 over the 35 week period.<< The jury is still out, after a brief rally in OCT of 74 the market went on to make a new Low, Dec 16th of that year. ------------ fortune.com Buffet in the above article talks like; "Why in the world would a company be assuming 7.5% when it could get nearly 10.5% on government bonds? The answer is that rear-view mirror again: Investors who'd been through the collapse of the Nifty Fifty in the early 1970s were still feeling the pain of the period and were out of date in their thinking about returns. They couldn't make the necessary mental adjustment. "" And about how dumb institution buyers are on a whole, and how people see in the rear view mirror "what they believe" and don't see what they don't want to believe. ------------ What's the point about using 74 ? why not 87 the market crashed harder in 87. AS for comparing detailed data from long ago to what is happening today.. I've always said that was a big mistake, and the further you go back the bigger the mistake gets. At least Buffet uses a general overview broken into large time frames. But look at the amount of shares out standing in 74...and then the amount outstanding today..I can' find the data. But even so; if short sales did peak in OCT of 74, that wasn't the bottom many must have covered on the run up, and not been short when the bottom really did come, in Dec. --------- There are many things not the same as they were even in the 80s. Out of the 50 states , I think there is only 3 that did not change their laws in the mid 90s to jump in the stock market. You need to look at how much and fast most these states went from a budget surplus to a huge deficit. Now they can't print money like the Fed can so all the so called tax cuts by the fed won't offset half of the tax increases that are getting ready to hit at state and local levels. 4 States have under funded retirement plans that exceed their entire buget..the report isn't really old but then again it is, you see they don't report in real time..by the time it's released it's almost a year old. -------------- We may have made a bottom in early OCT, hell I was buying but I'm not about to say it was the final bottom and that the train is not going to back up some more. We may not make a final bottom for another 10 to 15ys Most of the crap that happened in Japan, that every one is saying can't happen here, is slowly happening. Jim.

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