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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index

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To: Moominoid who wrote (6363)10/28/2002 9:44:30 PM
From: SouthFloridaGuyRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
Don't worry, David. White people have no problems getting a greencard. My poor brown wife has had to wait 18 months to get her's renewed, with unbelievable red-tape and INS Bullshit. Geez, such paranoia?

Since you're still new to America, come visit New York City in the next 5 years or for that matter, any urban city with a large "minority" population. You know there was a time when people wouldn't visit this great urban jungle due to fear of being mugged or murdered? Manhattan property was at a discount to the burbs, can you believe it? Thank God, that's behind us.

You can witness first hand, "reversion to the mean." I guess all things can't go up in perpetuity, or in this case, down. But hey, what's 2.4% among friends? Don't worry, it's probably "the bottom."

FBI: Crime Up First Time in Decade
Mon Oct 28, 4:12 PM ET
By CURT ANDERSON, Associated Press Writer

WASHINGTON (AP) - The number of U.S. crimes rose last year for the first time in a decade, an increase that coincided with an economic downturn that many experts say played a key role. Murder, armed robbery, rape and burglary all were higher in 2001, the FBI (news - web sites) reported Monday.

FBI Photo

Related Links
• Crime in the U.S. 2001 (FBI)
• Crimes factsheet (FBI)



"The economy has to be the prime suspect," said James Lynch, professor at American University's Department of Justice (news - web sites), Law and Society.

The crime index increased 2.1 percent last year, the FBI said in its annual report drawn from 17,000 law enforcement agencies nationwide. That marked the first year-to-year increase since 1991.

Still, the number of crimes is 18 percent lower than a decade ago and 10 percent fewer than in 1997.

The index measures four violent crimes (murder, forcible rape, robbery and aggravated assault) and three property crimes (burglary, larceny-theft and motor vehicle theft).

There were 4,160 crimes per 100,000 people in the United States last year, up slightly from the 4,124 per 100,000 recorded the previous year.

The number of murders increased for the second straight year, following several years of decline, to 15,980, or 2.5 percent more than in 2000. Forcible rapes were up less than 1 percent and robberies rose 3.7 percent. Aggravated assaults, on the other hand, fell by a half-percentage point to the lowest level since 1987.

The FBI report did not include the Sept. 11 deaths at the World Trade Center, Pentagon (news - web sites) and from the plane crash in Pennsylvania. Those deaths, the FBI said, "are different from the day-to-day crimes committed in this country."

The report listed the number of Sept. 11 murder victims as 3,047. Of those, 2,823 occurred at the World Trade Center, 184 at the Pentagon and 40 in Somerset County, Pa. The 19 hijackers are listed separately by the FBI.

Property crimes with no threat of violence such as burglary, larceny and arson rose 2.3 percent, to 10.4 million cases. The total value of stolen property was pegged at $17.1 billion, with motor vehicles and jewelry accounting for the most money. About a third of stolen property was recovered.

Annette Bickford, a sociology professor at Long Island University, said poverty and insecurity increase when the economy falters, breeding more crime. Violent crime in particular tends to rise when the gap widens between the haves and have-nots, she said.

"We get this creation of the social 'other,' where people feel hopeless and there is no place for them," Bickford said.

Cities with populations between 250,000 and 500,000 had the largest increase in crimes at 4.1 percent, according to the FBI. The largest cities, those with more than 1 million inhabitants, saw crime rise only by a half percentage point, while suburban and rural counties saw crime increases of 2.4 percent and 1.9 percent, respectively.

Lynch said this shows that crime is less confined to the inner cities. "The really bad places have been diffused, they've been sent out to the 'burbs," he said.

The FBI report differs from a survey done earlier this year by the Justice Department (news - web sites), which identified a drop in all violent crimes except murder in 2001. Murder is not included in that survey, and the FBI cautions against comparing the two reports.

The Justice Department report is based on interviews with people who identify themselves as victims, though they do not always report crimes to police.

The FBI analysis does not count simple assaults or non-forcible rape sexual assaults — they are difficult to track and often not reported to police. Justice Department officials said could inflate the overall crime rate in the FBI analysis.

Among other findings in the FBI report:

_There were 6,750 white murder victims and 6,446 black, with the remainder a mix of other or unknown races. Men were far more likely than women to be murdered; about 42 percent of victims knew or were related to their attacker.

_Firearms accounted for 8,719 slayings, or about two-thirds, followed by knives, "personal" weapons such as fists and feet, blunt objects and such methods as drugs, strangulation and drowning. There were 10 murders-by-poison, according to the FBI.

_Police made arrests in about 20 percent of all crimes. They did better with violent crimes, solving 46 percent, including about two-thirds of all murders. Burglaries remain the toughest cases to crack, with just 13 percent of offenses resulting in arrests.

_There were more than 2.3 million arrests for crimes tracked by the FBI in 2001, down less than 1 percent from the year before.

_There were more than 76,000 arson offenses in 2001 and 9,726 hate crime incidents. Comparisons for 2000 were not given for those crimes.
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