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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: James F. Hopkins who wrote (200830)10/29/2002 11:29:35 AM
From: GraceZ  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
Maybe you watch to much CNBC

No, I track Fed operations on a daily basis and keep it in a spread sheet. I know exactly what it is that the Fed is doing even if no one else seems to. They have cut permanent creation almost in half in the last four five months, its no where near where it was in the last two years. Your statement that they are pumping is patently false. You think that a short term rise in M2 means the Fed is pumping. You obviously don't understand that the monetary aggregates aren't solely controlled by Fed actions. Sometimes there is a delayed response to previous actions. The Fed only controls the amount that is available for banks to borrow to add to their reserves. In order for money to be created banks have to make loans on those reserves. Loans have been contracting for a long time. Fed isn't adding because they've reached the pushing on the string stage where adding didn't stimulate the economy but only served to push up prices.

Furthermore, most seem to forget that banks can raise their own reserves by selling treasuries, maybe you noticed we had a bit of a bond sell off recently. The money supply can rise from an increase in loans made on existing reserves since loans are made on a fractional basis it isn't always necessary for the Fed to act to increase the money supply, all it takes is an increase in the inclination to borrow money. All evidence is that monetary aggregates have been flattening from their torrid pace of the last two years, not accelerating. If you looked at some longer term charts you'd see that. That is if you are able to see past your preconceived notions.
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