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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (24707)10/29/2002 10:17:55 PM
From: Maurice Winn  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
Jay, John is a year behind the times. His post in Buy Range stream was right for 2 years ago [I actually checked the date when I was part way through as I thought he must have directed me to a post from back then for some reason].

The outcome was that royalties from inside China will be near zero. 2% only. Which is NOT a huge stream of profit, even if every Chinese buys a CDMA cyberphone. 2% on $100 cyberphones [which will be upmarket ones in China] is $2 x 1 billion is only $2 billion, which is barely enough to justify 2 years of QUALCOMM's market capitalisation of about $30bn.

Now exports are another matter! 7% is getting to be real money.

CDMA is used by China as a negotiating tool with King George II and co. With Hu Jintao coming in, it's timely to dust TD-SCDMA off for another flogging.

I think all will settle down by Chinese New Year in time for a lot of CDMA sales. Maybe Hu will want to make a bit of noise on entry, to get attention and some respect. He needs nice safe things with which to do that. CDMA is a good one.

He can invite King George II for a chat early next year and that'll give them something to talk about other than Taiwan.

All good fun,
Mqurice
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