Some notes on the Intersil Quarterly CC. As I am hardly a stenographer I am sure that I made some mistakes, but hopefully small ones. Also I didn't get to listen to quite all of the CC, so there is always the chance that I missed something important although the analysts were starting to ask really tedious questions by the time I hung up:
Rev – 191.3M
GM=54%
Wireless – Rev=74.6M, up 26% from previous Q
Power Cntl – Rev=46.9M, up 7% from previous Q
Elantec – Rev=25M, down 15% from previous Q
Standard Analog – up 1% from previous Q
Automotive – Rev=10.8M, up from previous Q due to customers doing last order
The biggest ‘surprise’ growth area was power supply. And the big growth here was Video Cards for which they now believe that they have 20% market share (and expect 50% next year). But DDR memory and Notebook power supplies just started their ramp this last Q. About 60% of their power supply revs are Desktop PC motherboard, 15-20% are DDR, Video Cards, and notebook, and the rest are miscellaneous.
Inre Elantec – revenues are down due to inventory workoff. They expect that to be finished by the start of Q1. The explanation for having an inventory workoff in this area driven by PCs (flat screens, optical memory) and not in power control is that Elantec customers are further down the supply chain and didn’t feel the sting until later. Random notes: DVD recordable (with a much higher ASP) is now 8% of DVD market, but shipments doubled in 6 mo, and will double again next year.
Wireless – The reason for the large spike in revenues last quarter is that they brought the lead times down for PRISM 2 and 2.5 from 12-13 weeks last Q to 8 weeks this Q. Expect to bring the lead time for PRISM 3 down to 8 weeks this next Q. Expect multiband products to start ramping Q1. Expect shipments to double next year just as they did this year. Note that they questioned some industry analysis which says it didn’t double in this last year. Several questions were asked about Intel’s break into 802.11 and their reply was that for all current Intel 802.11 they are the only supplier and they would expect to continue to do a lot of Intel business even after mid-03 when Intel introduces their own products. They also seemed enthused about Intel entering the market – really expanding the market (I’d love to hear their real thoughts on this – what percentage of their market might Intel take, what are their new opportunities, …).
Other random notes:
1)BtB for this quarter was a little less than 1 – but the automotive pop might be the explanation.
2)The reason for the prediction of flat revenue for next Q is primarily macroeconomic – not based on anything they can see, but we can’t.
3)The primary reason for the improvement in GM this last Q was Elantec.
4)Expect that earnings will grow more that revenues over the next Q |
