"Roger, calling the exact top is fun! We are definitely close"
Does the fact that you guys have called it so many times make it that much more fun? :)
"Wheeeee! Let's do it again!"
Eventually, of course, one of you will be right.
FWIW, I'll give you my most likely scenario, based on my analysis of the DJ30.
The DJ30 closed today on the upper boundry of it's upward-trading trending channel. If it moves up tomorrow (duh! do you think it might move up tomorrow?) it will move up out of the channel.
There are two possibilities: it will enter a new, steeper (!) trend, or this will be the beginning of a blowoff top. My bet is on the latter, with a classic head-and-shoulders formation.
What I'm afraid most of the people on this thread don't understand, is that a blowoff top in the market as a whole is a much different beast than a blowoff top in an individual stock. It will take several months to complete. This has been a huge bull market. It calls for a huge top formation.
My most likely scenario is a move to 10,000, followed by a drop below 8000, and a "right shoulder" around 8,000. so, while you guys are calling the top, I think we are just moving up out of a possible left shoulder.
When/if we put in that right shoulder will be the time to short. 10,000 could also be good, since it has great psychological significance.
But I think that my proposed right shoulder will be a GREAT time to short, because a lot of people will be fooled, having been trained in this market to buy the dips.
A lot of things will happen between now and then. Most importantly, we must see the dogs and cats roar.
I figure the right shoulder will be put in some time next year, about the time that Greenspeak decides it's time to start ticking-up interest rates again.
Of course, all my guessing about exact levels and shape are just that - guessing. But I do think it's a likely scenario. What I am certain of is that a move up from here has some pretty awesome implications. 8500 by the end of July is not impossible. 8500 by the end of the WEEK is not impossible. |
