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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: Snowshoe who wrote (24722)10/30/2002 10:47:49 PM
From: energyplay  Read Replies (2) of 74559
 
Hi Snowshoe - I have a similar problem. It's really tought to be a fiduciary right now, with stocks blowing up, P/Es till too high, and short term rates really low. Here are a few suggestions-

On the Equity side -

Shell oil, RD, pays about a 3.5% dividend at current prices.

Natural gas royalty trusts - see the web site www.mcdep.com for more detailed info. Look at San Jaun Trust SJT, HGT, and CRT. These pay out monthly based on the price of gas after a 3 month delay. Payouts run 6- 9 %.

Payouts will be increasing this winter as the price of gas rises.

There are also Canadian NG trusts. Look at ERF and NCN. Also there is a discussion thread on SI called Candian Reits and trusts.

Also on the equity side, utility stock s have ben hit very hard. You may want to look at Tampa Electric TE or El Paso EP. Dividends are now about 9%, and the stocks are recovering. Discussions and information on these can be found on SI at Big Dog's Boom Boom Room.

Also on the Equity side you might want a small slice of a gold stock or two. Newmont NEM , especailly below about $28, is an insitutional favorite.

With the current low interest rates, and the FED creating money, inflation is likely to be a future problem - that's why the energy and gold emphasis.

Bond side - Look at TIPS, the U.S. treasury inflation protected securties. Pimco Real return (PRRDX I think) has these, there is also a Vanguard version. Duration is pretty long, so you will have so sensitivity to rising interest rates.

For non-U.S. Bonds look at the BEGBX from American Century bond fund which has high quality Euro and Pound sterling bonds, mostly governments. RPIBX from T.Rowe Price is similar but a little more volitile. This give you some protection against a falling dollar. Yield is about 4-6 %, Duration is medium. Also, the ECB is expected to bring rates down - another positive.

Also, there are now exchage traded bond funds, like LTR, which have very low expenses.

Beyond that , look at some of the closed-end bond funds, especially if you need muni bonds for a taxable account.
Barron's has a Closed end table every week, and Mornigstar has some good info, you just have to dig around to find the closed end part of morningstar. Just don't pay a big premium to NAV.

What you are doing is difficult in today's environment.

Best Regards, energyplay
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