8:40AM GDP 3.1%; new claims 410,000; employment costs up 0.8% : Well, we have gotten our deluge of data this AM, and on the whole it looks positive for the equity markets. While GDP of 3.1% was well below expectations for 3.6%, we would note that consumer spending was +4.2%, over half of which was due to autos. With the Fed set to cut interest rates 50 bps next week, this strength in auto sales is likely to continue and get GDP above 4.0% in Q4. On the new claims front, yes claims were 410,000 and above estimates, but the more important 4-week moving average moved down. With the Fed set to cut interest rates 50 bps next week, these newly unemployed workers will help drive economic recovery as they will have more time to shop and spend their home re-financing cash outs, without the burden of a job taking up 8 hours of their day; this will drive consumer spending above +5.0% in Q4. Finally, employment costs were 0.8%, well below the consensus; wages were only +0.5%. This is fantastic for business profitability as who wants to pay those pesky workers anyway. With the Fed set to cut interest rates 50 bps next week, this will lower business' interest costs and allow them to replace more workers with capital equipment and move more jobs off-shore to China, which is very positive for corporate profitability.
On the whole we expect the market to take very kindly to this data and extend the 3-week-old bull market. Did we mention that the Fed is set to cut interest rates 50 bps next week??
Cheers |
