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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: bruceleroy1_- who wrote (201364)	10/31/2002 2:56:49 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (1) of 436258

Herb Greenberg Contra Kurlak 10/31/02 02:34 PM ET It should be pointed out that not everybody thinks Kurlak's call is genius. My best semi source, who has called the semi cycle better than ANYBODY I know, calls it "the dumbest thing i have ever read." "Everybody's talking about how there is a building glut of handset inventory," my source continues. "And his comments that a PC replacement cycle is overdue sounds so warm and fuzzy, but PCs have already been replaced. "And his comments about these stocks being at trough valuations are wrong and misleading. How can Applied Materials be at a trough if it's up 50% from 15 trading days ago (and coincidentally from its 1998 trough, which was its highest trough valuation ever)? Its previous three troughs were at substantially lower valuations, which would value AMAT at 40% of where it is now -- or $6 or $8. How can up 50% be a trough? "And Intel bottomed in past cycles at nearly 1-times sales versus the 2-times to 3-times sales he's talking about. He's off by a factor of about three on what he says the trough is." So says my source. none

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