wow, you know that is a very interesting article... I agree completely with the overall point, but most of the companies they list I consider to be the survivors and not undead at all! (at least for the spaces I am most familiar with). Either this writer is only peripherally familiar with software or I am in denial... or a bit of both.
First of all, taking the "built to last" box, the writer questions why these companies have never made a profit. The problem is, for i2, macromedia, manugistics and tibco at least- the mantra for them in the last decade was growth and positive cash flow. Its not like these guys can't generate a profit. I consider them as survivors. Epiphany and Vignette I agree are doomed.
Then in the next box, they list the spaces and all the players in each. Taking supply chain management they have i2, manhattan associates, manugistics and vertex. Vertex does tax rate software where they send you a tape every month with how much tax is due for a specific region. Manhattan associates is the warehouse. I2 and manu are truly supply chain but manu is more logistics and I2 discrete. I would consider these as completely different spaces- therefore these will survive... with the one caviat that i2 and manu might wind up as one surviving company or a merger of the 2.
For sales force and marketing automation, that would be the area I consider most crowded (CRM). The problem with CRM as opposed to say, SCM is that it was too successful as a space and the big guys took it. I don't think sales force and mktg deserve 2 different boxes, even- they are just CRM. I would put sebl,psft,orcl,sap there as LT survivors and consider salesforce.com,kana,firedrop,blue martini,epiphany,e-gain plus a whole bunch of others as living dead.
But the writer didn't even mention the real living dead- companies who don't even have a viable space anymore- the marketplace vendors, and "web storefronts" (these are being morphed into ERP order management)- bvsn,artg,imo vignette belongs here,cmrc, etc. Thats where most of the new companies are which are going away.
Imo if tomorrow we were left with all the companies he listed in the piece then that would be fine from a consolidation standpoint.
Lizzie |
