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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed
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To: Knighty Tin who wrote (201452)10/31/2002 8:36:51 PM
From: Knighty Tin  Read Replies (1) of 436258
 
What's hot and what's snot: 1. Soybean oil calls were hot, but now the contract has gone too high for the fundamentals. Soybean oil puts are now de rigeur. 2. IBM continues to frustrate me and only my faith that it is doomed and the fact that I only have a first third of puts give me hope. 3. High grade copper futures are zooming up and the economic numbers stink to high heaven. With stocks, like Phelps Dodge, something other than copper prices (such as a low valuation, resource pricing, market share gains, etc.) can support the stock. But economic reality will always win with commodities. So, if the economic reality is what it looks like it is, HG is selling way too high. And da poots be cheap. 4. If we go to war before the last week of November, December crude oil calls will be golden. However, they are a wee bit of a commitment load for those who don't buy options all the time. 5. Sliver had been silding up. The calls are also cheap on shiny white.

6. Talking about reform is hot. Reforming is snot. Chinese walls seem to be the latest scam offered by Wall Street. BTW, I have never understood that term. The Great Wall of China is damned impressive.

7. The big upset of the next 3 months: the complete comeback of high grade bonds. Now that everyone has sold out, they will go up. I am buying AA muni closed end funds yielding 7.3-7.5% for my aggressive investors. Selling at 8% discounts to NAV. Folks, the buy and holders are not going to earn the equivalent of an after tax 7% in the stock market over the next 5 years. That would require another blast-off bull market. Don't get me wrong. Savvy traders can still beat 10-12% tax equivalent returns. But indexers will be better off in bonds.

Happy Hollow Weenie.
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