Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (24822)	10/31/2002 10:32:32 PM
From: Maurice Winn	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Jay, China is wasting time on a well-worn track. It leads to a dead end. Literally in Ericy's case [almost]. Message 18174890 Did you see D'oh!CoMo slinking back to their cave, writing off $billions after their hopeless attempt to get VW-40 [aka W-CDMA] adopted around the world? China ought to give it away and get with the programme. Hu Jintao is being given a few cards to play, but they are low value cards, just something to throw away for appearance sake to stay in the game. The announcements also create great trading opportunities, which I'm sure those making the announcement were well aware of and positioned ready for the announcement. There is also an announcement to be made that CDMA handsets are to be correctly priced and subsidies canceled and homegrown royalty-free handsets with China's own CDMA chips developed, or some other nonsense. No, I haven't heard any such thing yet. I am just making a prediction. I guess that one will come in within a week or so - perhaps just before QUALCOMM's results announcement. That would enable an excellent buying opportunity [following the sales and shorts that they will have made before announcing the bad news of TD-SCDMA]. Then, after the excellent QUALCOMM results are out, they'll announce that CDMA handset sales are great and subsidies are not all bad after all and TD-SCDMA has hit a glitch which might put it back a year or two. That will probably be about February [after the huge CDMA sales for Xmas are on the books]. Then, in March, they'll unload again, short a Mack truckload. Then in April announce that TD-SCDMA glitches have been resolved and it's all on again. Also that subsidy bans have been reconfirmed and royalties are not due to QUALCOMM anyway. It seems to work well - the price jumps up and down when CDMA was onoffonoffonoffonoff a couple of years ago were extremely profitable for people trading the news [especially beforehand]. I would be surprised if some people did not know the news before the media did. I think skinning the dragon is best done by grabbing it by the tail and starting there. Mqurice

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