Secretary of State predicts
record turnout Tuesday
By TOM FAHEY
State House Bureau Chief
CONCORD — Voters appear poised to turn out in record number for this year’s election, Secretary of State William Gardner said yesterday.
He thinks 60 percent of the state’s voters will come to the polls on Nov. 5. — as many as 385,000 voters. That compares with 327,600 voters who turned out in 1998, the last time midterm elections were held. If he’s right, mid-term election turnout will have jumped more than 17 percent since four years ago.
Gardner said heavy advertising by all candidates, a high number of absentee ballot requests, and the fact that the state has open seats in the U.S. Senate, U.S. House of Representatives and the governor’s office convince him that the state will set a mid-term record.
Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and U.S. Rep. John Sununu are fighting for the seat left vacant by U.S. Bob Smith, whom Sununu beat in the primary. Republican Craig Benson and Democrat Mark Fernald are running for Shaheen’s open seat, and Martha Fuller Clark and Jeb Bradley are seeking the seat Sununu is leaving for his Senate run.
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“In half the state, the top three positions on the ballot have no incumbent running. This type of election doesn’t happen all that often. You have to go back pretty far in history to find that,” he said.
Gardner predicted a record turnout in the September primary this year, making estimates many veteran observers thought were wildly optimistic. It turned out Gardner underestimated the record surge of primary voters.
He’s expecting the high level of participation to continue.
“You get a feel for it, what the level of interest is, just from talking to people,” he shrugged. “It’s just a guess; but it’s a guess that comes from having lived through many of these over the last 30 years.”
Political ads, however negative or grating they may be, get the word out that election day is near, he said.
“There won’t be many people living in the state who won’t know there’s an election on November 5. They’re being reminded of it daily, several times a day. It helps to inflate the turnout a bit,” Gardner said.
Four years ago, races were not as competitive as they are now. U.S. Sen. Gregg was coasting to an easy victory over his Democratic opponent, George Condodemetraky, Gov. Jeanne Shaheen held a comfortable lead over Republican Jay Lucas, and incumbents held both seats in the U.S. House.
Gardner thinks that depressed turnout a bit in the mid-term elections, which typically draw fewer voters than in years when they elect a President.
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