Sharp,
A decade or so ago I was a Forbes subscriber, but something changed editorially (maybe their readership dumbed down and they had to follow?) and the articles became unreadable. The front part (Malcolm, Cap, etc.) was always useless and that kind of left me with the ads.
Big picture: The important thing, from the PPT point of view, is that the market made it through October. I see them as simply easing off for this month, applying the brakes but lightly (one set of brakes will be the 25 bp rate cut??). Here's the Diamonds' chart:
stockcharts.com[h,a]dbclyiay[pb10!b50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lh14,3!Li14,3!La12,26,9!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=G
Wow, if I was a dang-that-was-the-bottom-October-10-kinda bull on this market, that chart would worry me considerably. When the July rally topped in August, we had about a 5-6 day topping out process. But if we're topping out here, and these charts are beginning to say so, we're already doing it on a 10-day, rounded top basis. A bigger plunge is coming, imho.
The last time the Dow (and its proxy, DIA) had such a rounded top was in May, after which it did its famous gut wrench, ratchet down performance while puking up 25% of its value:
stockcharts.com[h,a]dbclyiay[d20020301,20021101][pb10!b50!b200!i!f][vc60][iut!Lh14,3!Li14,3!La12,26,9!Lb14!Lg!Lc9!Lf15]&pref=G
A 25% puke from here takes us to the 6350-6400 level in the Dow, btw.
(K Tanzy on CNBC is doing a paste-up job on TA, clicking on a 'puter and looking at CMF lines "well, BMY looks healthy here." LOL. This is clearly a pale imitation of Brian on Bloomberg TV who actually goes through technical indicators with some knowledge and care. Count on CNBC to do it "lite" every time.)
Kb |
