Understand that we have had rallies out of poor economic news, but not sharply deteriorating news. Something like the sox is unheard of.
A sharp rebuke is appropriate here, however: this bear was one unlike any ever before: a brutal sustained sell off based mostly on valuations and overinvestment, NOT based on economic collapse, inflation, deflation, etc. Very unusual and comparable more to the railroad and oil boom era'a and not anything we have seen in 100 years. SO PERHAPS, we get a rally unlike any ever before: one that rallies on bad economic news, because we were collapsing on good economic news. I still think the bottom is quite probably in, and that we will consolidate between 1100 and 1450 for perhaps 6-9 months, and then enter a period like 1992-1995, 1933-1936, 1982-1984, before then entering a period like 1937-1952, or 1977-1982.
There are infinite ways that this market can behave even if we stay between 1000 and 5000 on the nasdaq between 2000-2020, which is what I believe. In the end, those 20 years may well be the worst 20 year performance in the history of the market |
