Booms, Busts, and Recoveries Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries

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To: TobagoJack who wrote (24845)	11/1/2002 12:43:02 PM
From: energyplay	Read Replies (2) of 74559

Hi Jay - The Stillwater (SWC) thing is a riot ! Lots of entertainment value here.... Re: NLY Last year I expected some credit card companies to blow up. SO I bought puts on Providian PVN, Captial One COF , and Household HI. I knew PVN was the most aggresive with sub-prime. HI was probably the strongest. I expect they would go like fire crackers, one after the other - PVN, COF, HI. Well PVN totally blew up - big win. COF and HI bent , but did not break. HI was evne able to sell about a Billion in bonds about 10 days after teh 9/11 attacks without an interest rate increase. I ended up giving back most of my gains on COF anf HI. Now, one year later , COF is in trouble, and HI may have some negatives. SO in a sense I was right, but very early (like a year) for HI, maybe 9 months for COF. Lesson for me is to pick on the weaker ones( like Providian PVN and AmeriCredit, which I should have done, but the puts seemed pricey) and put the stronger ones on a watch list. I think NLY may not fall apart on schedule for you.

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