USdollar slowly breaking down, a continuing story
based as much upon fact and chart as hope and expectation
stockcharts.com[h,a]daclyyay[dc][pb50!d20,2!f][vc60][iUb14!Uh15,5,5]&pref=G
today we have the buck under the October 1st low
it closed today at 106.1, with low of 105.8
Oct 1st support was 106.5
Bollinger Band was broken today, with lower band at 106.5
I do not present this info as UTTER BREAKDOWN
but rather as ongoing slowmotion erosion breakdown
relative strength is weakening badly
now in stochastic oversold territory, which could remain with us
next support is early Sept low of 105.4
we saw three knocks at the upper resistance levels near 109
and three failures, often a precursor of bigger decline
of the last 10 days, only two updays, 5 straight downers
20MA is just about ready to crossover 50MA
red dotted crossing blue solid
such a crossover hasnt happened since early August
but that was a favorable cross
a bear cross would be ominous, given the chart
I regard this as a bear pause pennant slowly breaking down
I think this BITCH has caught her bad breath enough to resume the downhill sprint
all fundamentals are aligned with downward resumption
federal deficits, trade gaps, expected lower rates
and the biggee -- double dip recession evidence all over
cars & housing lead into recession retraction
the car hand has been totally played out
the housing hand has been almost played out
will another round of REFI's save housing? no way
yet another round would only delay the inevitable, and probably intensify the severity of the RE decline's viciousness
/ jim |
