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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den

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To: At_The_Ask who wrote (5014)	11/1/2002 8:32:30 PM
From: JRI	Read Replies (1) of 10157

Shack, AA- Don't know what happened to that link- but it talked about a bunch of negative divergences developing this past week (ones we've picked up on), and that the author believes indicates that this move can not go much higher, 6-7% and then collapse (not just minimal retrace). The point I found most interesting: author claimed that he looked at 15 years of AAII data, and had only rarely seen the huge % swing from bears to bulls (that we've seen in just week). He claims that- on the rare times it has happened, it has led to a spike-y top, and harsh turnaround- essentially it represents dumb money getting way too anxious that they are missing a rally. John M. point earlier this week was that AAII numbers have been higher, and can remain that way for a while. However, John M. did not address/comment the velocity of change. That's what this guy is doing, and stating that historically speaking it dooms this continuation of the rally to a 6-7% spike max. (and in next few days) and then DOWN.

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