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Strategies & Market Trends : Booms, Busts, and Recoveries
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To: TobagoJack who wrote (24864)11/1/2002 9:39:00 PM
From: Canuck Dave  Read Replies (1) of 74559
 
What about 2003? Good question!

I follow your posts pretty carefully Jay, as someone who is "on the ground" in China. Ultimately, I hope the Asian economies will pull the world out of the next depression, but that might be 10-20 years down the road and may include a war or two. As pointed out by you and others, China is fraught with as many difficulties as opportunities, and the path to prosperity will be a bumpy one.

I don't have much hope for our Western future, though Canada may do oddly better as commodity prices improve. One way or another, inflation is taking hold, as reflected in basic foodstuff prices.

As far as 2003 is concerned, I have a few visions for North America. I see people living in 4000 square foot houses and two SUV's in the driveway, unable to afford electricity or car insurance. I see a couple of venerable old manufacturing names going bankrupt taking their "defined benefit" pension plans with them. I see less and less jobs as unemployment rises. I see cities unable to maintain infrastructure and schools closing. I see a quickening of the trend to a society of haves and have-nots.

I see people slowly realizing that the companies they hold shares in have been looted by insiders. I see a default of some kind followed by an implosion in the derivatives market. I see mutual funds cashing out and consolidating, and a losing of faith in the ability of central finance authorities to pull rabbits out of the hat.

In short, 2003 is the year some trends are firmly and decisively broken, and others make themselves known. And it isn't going to be pretty.

CD
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