Kudlow and Cramer, Jean-Marie on Loo's Wall Street and worthless evaluations (mine) about worthless valuations (the current bloated stock prices).
A. K&C were predicting a Wed. Trifecta for bulls. A Republican sweep, a Fed rate cut, and the return of the Jedi named Gates. Somehow, Kud chewer was able to look at this week's disastrous economic numbers to pick out huge growth. Our old buddy, Tom Thumb Kurlak, is now bullish on chips for the first time in many a moon. Cramer was having a mental orgasm crowing about the comeback of telecom and the internet and tech. Microsoft having its hands untied (not that the knots were ever worth a damn) to restart it's vicious process of forcing all innovators out of the tech market by cribbing their products, selling them through it's monopoly power and then beating the geeks in court when they sue, was cited as a hugely bullish sign. Apple, Netscape, Novell, move over. You are about to have mucho company.
A few problemos about their analysis: 1. Is there anyone on the planet who thought that MSFT had not contributed enough money to political campaigns to protect themselves from the most pro "business crime" administration since 1988? Harvey Pitt is not an aberration. He is the Flubya Bush definition of a guy who is tough on big business crime. Sort of like the professors who are tough on grading the football players at the U. of Miami. Nudge, nudge, wink, wink, the enforcement parrot is not dead. He never existed. So the ruling should not have legs in the market.
2. A tech pickup can happen for awhile. Remember stuffing the channel during the 90s scams? But somewhere along the line, the consumer has to decide he needs a new cell phone, or a tv that brings him bigger, clearer and more enhanced lousy tv shows. And business has to decide that they need new tech products to increase service to its declining customer base. And they will find the cash by floating bonds in the unfriendly corporate bond market. After all, the pensions will recover on their own, so there's no risk there.
3. I think the Republicans will win. With both houses and a dipwad like Georgie running things, they will see if they can move faster than Hoover's 9 months of prosperity. Whoever thought that Republicans were better for the economy? They are better for the handful of huge corporations, but that does nothing for the overall market.
4. Cramer chortled about higher computer sales in the GDP number. The man has never heard of hedonic pricing or he thinks it has to do with eating and drinking too much.
5. Buy first thirds of puts on everything. If they want to give us second third opportunities, don't feel guilty about taking the money of the gullible. They're going to lose it somewhere.
B. Jean-Marie Evilliard, of First Eagle Sogen Funds, was on Ruyk's show. He was polite and nice and subtle and basically stated that operating earnings that Lou and the gang had been quoting were bogus, that the US market was overpriced absolutely and completely bloated compared to other industrialized stock markets. If you have to be long something, First Eagle Sogen Overseas, Global and the gold fund, all managed by Evilliard, are all the top funds in their particular group. It was great to hear some words of wisdom immediately following another installment of Kudlow and Cramer's "Idiots R Us." Now, if I could just get his ear and talk him out of Tyco. <g> |
