Target for the blow off top
I think it started today. I think it extends into Monday and maybe Tuesday. I don't think it is going to be as much as big as some probably do. I think we have between 20-25 SPX points. This is based on the assumption that the April 2001 rally is the blueprint for this rally. There are definite similarities to the actualy chart patterns, but there are also significant similarities in the VIX and VXN charts. I have linked charts to the current rally and the April 2001 rally. Notice the fib levels from the previous top to the recent lows and the corresponding 2001 chart have very similar consolidation levels at 61.8%. In May of 2001, that rally topped out at 50% of the difference between the lows of the consolidation level and the January 2001 highs. The corresponding level on the current chart would be around 920ish on the SPX chart. It is my feeling that this rally will be driven primarily by speculative tech trash.
April 2001 rally
stockcharts.com[r,a]dhclynay[d20001101,20010901][pb50!b200!d20,2][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14!lp14,3,3!le12,26,9][j7941272,y]&listNum=1
October 2002 rally
stockcharts.com[r,a]dhcaynay[pb50!b200][iub14!la12,26,9!lk14!lp14,3,3!le12,26,9][j7941278,y]&listNum=1
Interestingly enough, the BRL on the 10pt chart is right at 920 and there is a spread double top at that level too.
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