Hello Canuck Dave, I have not pulled all my thoughts concerning 2003 into a coherent framework as yet, but I believe we are done with the Prologue to the Script of Collapse and are solidly into the first Act. I believe the general plot of the Script of Collapse is already clear, and all that remains are the (a) details of the scenery, (b) minutia of the dialogue, (c) expected twists and turns, (d) a genuine surprise or two, (e) screaming, cursing, yelling, and (f) buckets of crimson fluid liberally spewed all about with great unwillingness.
Hong Kong, being the most free and flexible economy in the world, gets to take a peek at the Script ahead of everybody else.
Our (district specific) real estate value will likely collapse another 20-30%, on top of the 50-60% already surrendered during the Asian Financial Crisis. Great many of the property owners are under water, holding property valued below mortgage amount.
Our interest rate for HK$ bank deposit is at 0.125%.
Our restaurants are giving 40% discounts on food.
My wife just interviewed for a secretary, and was told by an applicant, a 15-year veteran of the stock-clearing service, that she would settle for HKD 4-5,000 per month, because (a) she has not worked since February, (b) her skills are not relevant, (c) she is competing against new graduates at their starting wage, and (d) the starting wage in HK has rolled back to the time she started work 15 years ago (circa 1987).
Luckily, the lady owns her home outright, and her husband still has a job in the stock-clearing service. But she is worried that events may turn worse still.
I am aware of several fellow travelers who are now financially constrained, and maybe eventually destroyed. They had ventured too far into the center of the arena, and now there is no retreat. The simple direness of their situations are disturbing.
I count my blessings so far, appreciate that I am still in a position to shuffle some money here, move some funds there, hold a BBQ party, take a pleasure trip, buy a bauble, and contemplate the state of being and being not.
I realize that each large movement I make can turn out to be the fatal move. I am not talking about the puts I sell, or the stocks I buy. I am speaking of the currency allocations, the gold refuge, and thinking about the investment I may have to make in my wife’s business.
Yup, while each movement can be the fatal one, stillness can be deadly also, just as in a game of Death Match, Last Man Standing style.
Maurice sits in Kiwiland, comfortable, thinking that he is doing the right thing, but maybe he did not spot that strange reflection of glass so far away within the tree line, and do not know that someone is ready to take him out with one finger twitch. Does he sense the laser spot on his forehead, unshielded by the gold helmet? Perhaps not.
Then again, he may be surprised by a tera-watt of power bolted from the orbiting battle station, guided by the same laser spot.
Chugs, Jay |
