Semi Equipment Analysis Message Board

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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis

SOXX 306.28

-1.0%

4:00 PM EST

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To: Donald Wennerstrom who wrote (6609)	11/2/2002 7:43:35 AM
From: scott_jiminez	Read Replies (2) of 95521

Perfect. The sector has probably bottomed and will likely continue to see huge gains for the next 6 months or so. And to anyone who claims they can pinpoint the reason why the group is turning now (versus 3 or 6 month ago - or 3-6 months from now) I say PHOOEY! The IC data is horrific, PC demand is miniscule, CAPEX spending is accelerating its decline etc. etc. ad nauseum. But at least the rally is thrusting those stocks forward with the best prospects for next FY. WRONGO CHIPMUNKS! Look at the 4th and 5th lines of your table: LRCX, with estimated earnings of $0.43 next year is up 100% in the last 17 days while KLIC (hey ole buddy), with anticipated earnings of -$0.83 is up 95% during the same period! Thus the magnitude and longevity of this rally makes absolutely no sense. Well, not really 'absolutely'....since I can guarantee you that in 6-9 months from now we'll look back to this period and (re)state with clarion visibility, 'Ah, THAT was why the stocks were so strong then.' The market is discounting something, something that none of us are completely aware of quite yet. [Gottfried's quote attributed to James Morgan was spoken by Mae West and was not, to the best of my recollection, referring to chip equipment sales]

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