<<I don't play futures, so I buy NEM.>>
I was surprised with the strong performance of gold equities on Friday, joined in the general market rally.
<<Sounds like you are looking for a ramp up, then the start of a downward trend? >>
Actually, now that I have seen the NAZ McLellan (at 61):
stockcharts.com[d,a]dbllyyay[d20000128,20021228][pb10!b5][vc60]&pref=G
I've plugged this into my QQQ RSI/McLellan model and I'm coming up with a short-term pullback situation. The RSI(4) for QQQ is at 76. Not super high, but combined with the high McLellan, I would count on a minimal upside day on Monday at best, several percent down is most likely. If Monday does ramp up hard, that would set up Tuesday for a really high quality short.
As far as intermediate term goes, the trend is still up strong. I have a BPCOMPQ model which I haven't actually used with real money yet. Got an intermediate "buy" signal on the 16th. I have a subscription guy who uses a proprietary model - he went long on the 14th at the close.
One problem I am having with my BPCOMPQ model is determining when to exit short or long positions. By the time I get a signal, I've given up alot of gains already. I've found that its best to just bail out after achieving a 10% gain (on the QQQ). If the move doesn't get that high, then just use the normal signal.
Thus far my BPCOMPQ model is up about 8% in the current bull run, since the "buy" on October 17th.
Maybe Gottfried can help me out, I would like to buy in AH on the day that the BPCOMPQ buy (or short) signal is given, but it seems like Stockcharts doesn't publish this statistic until late in the day, after AH trading is completed. |
