Democrats leading in latest Field Poll
Shutout of Republicans in state offices possible
URL:http://sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/c/a/2002/11/02/MN193445.DTL
Carla Marinucci, Chronicle Political Writer Saturday, November 2, 2002
Democrats could be looking at a historic sweep of statewide offices, according to a Field Poll released today showing the party's candidates gaining momentum -- holding leads in all seven races for constitutional offices.
Only one race, for state controller, is a statistical dead heat with Democratic businessman Steve Westly receiving 41 percent support to 40 percent for Republican state Sen. Tom McClintock. Three percent of those surveyed backed other candidates, and 16 percent are undecided.
But Field Poll Director Mark DiCamillo pointed out that Westly's support has jumped dramatically in the past month when the Democrat trailed McClintock by 12 percentage points.
With considerably more money in his campaign war chest, the wealthy Democratic businessman "looks like he's done some catching up," DiCamillo said.
"If the same variables are in place, you can probably expect that to continue. "
All three Democratic incumbents running for re-election hold solid leads over their GOP challengers -- with Lt. Gov. Cruz Bustamante favored by a 12- point margin, Attorney General Bill Lockyer enjoying a 14-point spread and Treasurer Phil Angelides ahead by 7 points, the poll showed.
All statewide Democratic candidates have opened up larger leads in their races than in the previous Field Poll taken in September, the survey showed.
"The chances of Democrats sweeping all the offices is greater than it was six weeks ago," DiCamillo said.
If that happens, it would mark a political milestone -- the first time in recorded state history in which the Republicans are shut out of all statewide constitutional offices, said Tony Quinn, a GOP analyst with the "California Target Book."
While there are still large numbers of undecided voters in most races, he said, the poll represents "relatively good news for the Democrats . . . because the movement in voter preferences is even more significant."
A Field Poll released Friday showed Democratic Gov. Gray Davis with a 7- percentage point lead over Republican Bill Simon.
Two races remain very close. In addition to the controller's contest, Democratic Assemblyman Kevin Shelley of San Francisco is backed by 39 percent to 36 percent for GOP businessman Keith Olberg in the campaign for secretary of state. A month ago, Shelley trailed Olberg by 2 percentage points.
The current poll showed 1 in 5 voters is undecided in the secretary of state's contest.
The greatest number of undecided voters remains in the nonpartisan race for superintendent of public instruction, where half of all eligible voters say they have not yet made a choice. State Sen. Jack O'Connell, a Democrat, leads Anaheim school board member Katherine Smith, a Republican, by 32 percent to 18 percent -- a dramatic jump in O'Connell's numbers since the Field Poll in September, when he held just a 4-point lead.
Among the poll's results:
-- Bustamante is currently favored over state Sen. Bruce McPherson (R-- Santa Cruz) by 47 percent to 35 percent among likely voters, with 3 percent favoring minor-party candidates and 15 percent still undecided.
-- Lockyer leads state Sen. Dick Ackerman (R-Fullerton, Orange County) by 43 percent to 29 percent, with 6 percent favoring minor-party candidates, and 22 percent undecided.
-- Angelides holds a 38 percent to 31 percent lead over GOP challenger Bert Conlon, with 6 percent favoring minor-party candidates, and more than one in four voters undecided.
-- In the race for insurance commissioner, Democrat John Garamendi -- a former insurance commissioner -- leads Republican businessman Gary Mendoza 38 percent to 31 percent, with 6 percent favoring third-party candidates, and 1 in 4 voters undecided.
The random telephone survey was conducted Oct. 25-30 of 1,696 Californians, including 740 likely voters. The margin of error in the sample of likely voters is plus or minus 3.5 percentage points. |
