Battle for Senate Hinges on Turnout
2 hours, 59 minutes ago
By ALAN FRAM, Associated Press Writer
URL:http://story.news.yahoo.com/news?tmpl=story2&cid=683&ncid=716&e=2&u=/ap/20021103/ap_on_el_se/senate_rdp
WASHINGTON (AP) - Republicans hope to buck history and capture Senate control in an Election Day contest so excruciatingly close that factors as fickle as the weather may help decide the outcome.
Arkansas, Colorado, Missouri, New Hampshire, Minnesota and South Dakota all have tossup Senate races, and the outcome in five other states is far from sure. Operatives from both parties agree no visible overriding national issue has arisen that should tilt the voting to either party's advantage.
"I wish I was smart enough to give you a good answer," said Democratic pollster Fred Yang when asked what the decisive factor might be.
"I don't think there's a single factor, it's race by race," said GOP consultant Jan von Lohuizen.
Minnesota and New Jersey have been the settings for the campaign's most extraordinary events, both featuring the unexpected re-emergence of 70-something candidates.
In Minnesota, former Vice President Walter Mondale stepped in as Democratic candidate after the death of incumbent Sen. Paul Wellstone in the crash of his campaign plane Oct. 25. Former Sen. Frank Lautenberg became the Democrats' nominee in New Jersey after Sen. Robert Torricelli (news, bio, voting record) dropped out because of ethics allegations that seemed to doom his re-election drive. Lautenberg seems likely to win, while Mondale's prospects are uncertain.
Wellstone's death left the Senate in Democratic hands by 49-49 plus a Democratic-leaning independent. Republicans need to gain just one seat to grab control of the chamber, because Vice President Dick Cheney (news - web sites) has the power to break tie votes.
More peculiar events may lie ahead. If Sen. Mary Landrieu (news, bio, voting record), D-La., fails to win 50 percent of the vote on Election Day, she will face a Dec. 7 runoff against the second-place candidate. So it may take a month to learn which party controls the Senate for the next two years.
Seeking every advantage, both parties were pouring last-minute money into states with close races and dispatching high-profile campaigners into the field.
President Bush (news - web sites) was racing to a half-dozen Senate battleground states in the campaign's closing days, while former President Clinton (news - web sites) was journeying to New Jersey, Florida and his native Arkansas. Senate Majority Leader Tom Daschle, D-S.D., was working his home state, where Democratic colleague Tim Johnson was running neck-and-neck with GOP challenger Rep. John Thune (news, bio, voting record).
Operatives Yang and von Lohuizen agreed that even the weather could influence the outcome in razor-close races by affecting turnout. Traditionally, Republican voters generally are more dedicated than Democrats about slogging to the polls through foul weather.
A GOP takeover would be all the more remarkable because they are defending 20 of the 34 Senate seats in play.
In addition, they would be defying the historical trend in which the party holding the White House usually loses seats in midterm elections. The last midterm contest in which the president's party gained Senate seats compared to the previous Election Day was in 1982, when President Reagan's GOP picked up one.
Following is a look at other closes races:
_Missouri: Republicans consider this their strongest chance for a pickup, with former Rep. Jim Talent running strongly against Democratic Sen. Jean Carnahan (news, bio, voting record). She was appointed to replace her husband, Mel, who was elected in 2000 three weeks after he was killed in a plane crash. The winner completes the final four (news - web sites) years of the six-year term.
_Arkansas: With conservatives upset that he divorced his longtime wife and married a younger former aide, GOP Sen. Tim Hutchinson (news, bio, voting record) is having a hard time holding off Democratic state Attorney General Mark Pryor, son of a beloved former senator who retired in 1996. The Democrats' likeliest takeover.
_New Hampshire: Democratic Gov. Jeanne Shaheen and GOP Rep. John Sununu (news, bio, voting record) are in an even fight for the seat held by Republican Sen. Bob Smith, whom Sununu ousted in a bitter primary.
_Colorado: Incumbent Republican Sen. Wayne Allard (news, bio, voting record) is running even with his 1996 challenger, Democratic lawyer Tom Strickland, as the candidates trade charges of being too cozy with big corporations.
_North Carolina: Former GOP presidential candidate Elizabeth Dole (news - web sites) is in an unexpectedly close race against Erskine Bowles, Clinton's White House chief of staff.
_Georgia: Democratic Sen. Max Cleland (news, bio, voting record) is facing a strong challenge from GOP Rep. Saxby Chambliss (news, bio, voting record).
_Iowa: Democratic Sen. Tom Harkin (news, bio, voting record) seems to be opening a lead against Republican Rep. Greg Ganske (news, bio, voting record).
_Texas: GOP state Attorney General John Cornyn seems to be holding off Democrat Ron Kirk, the former Dallas mayor |
