Strictly: Drilling II Message Board

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Strategies & Market Trends : Strictly: Drilling II

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To: Jim Willie CB who wrote (21204)	11/3/2002 10:14:53 AM
From: Sharp_End_Of_Drill	Read Replies (4) of 36161

Jim, the answer to your questions is inflation. When swamped with debt you can do the following: default - many companies and individuals are doing that now and it will accelerate. Devalue - the more likely scenario on the international scene. Inflate - that is the only workable answer I see to our dilemma. Whether or not we see deflation on a broad scale first remains to be seen. I have no doubt we will see it in a number of sectors, but I doubt we'll see truly broad scale. As you correctly point out the risks of a complete melt down are too high in that situation - it rarely if ever pays to bet on armageddon. The things you describe will lead to a situation where the only things that will matter are guns, food, and water. Good luck to 'ya if you want to bet on an outcome with probably less than 5% chance of happening. Comparing our course to the Japanese doesn't get it with me either. Have you ever worked closely with a group of Japanese? I have, and can report the differences are large. They can be very wrong, and you can prove it to them beyond a doubt, but they won't change direction for a myriad of cultural & face saving reasons. Western civilizations are quite different. Nobody likes to be wrong, but as I said when you knock us down we bounce back stronger - we will eventually change course and do the right things. Japanese will follow a course to complete failure. Your gloom & doom makes for good entertainment value, but the trap as I see it is you won't know when to become bullish. That time will come when we are swamped with debt, all looks bleak, and it seems we are right on the cliff. At that point you will be more bearish than ever - at exactly the moment you should change. Sharp

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