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Technology Stocks : Semi Equipment Analysis
SOXX 309.36+2.2%Dec 3 4:00 PM EST
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To: Zeev Hed who wrote (6631)11/3/2002 12:54:46 PM
From: Donald Wennerstrom  Read Replies (1) of 95520
 
Zeev,

Thanks for the post - it's good to get your assessment of the market situation at any time, and I hope you will have time to give the thread your insights whenever you can.

Both the SOX and the NASDAQ "bottomed" on October 9th and during the past 17 trading days have gone up 46 and 22 percent respectively. In a similar situation, the "market" bottomed in 8 October 1998. During the first 17 trading days of the recovery, the SOX and NASDAQ were up 39 and 27 percent respectively - obviously very similar performance to what we are just experiencing presently.

In 1988 there was no "pullback" before much greater gains were made. Both the SOX and NASDAQ continued(with very minor rest/pullbacks) to "power ahead" to the 1st of February 1999 where they hit 313 and 2510 for gains of 65 and 77 percent respectively.

I have been wondering if the present upswing will be similar to the 1998 action and continue without interruption to much higher prices - or as you seem to feel, a pullback is in order prior to strong, more sustained upward movement.

I would greatly appreciate any comments you care to make on the similarities or differences between the 2 periods and why this time we can expect a pullback prior to moving upward again.

Don
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