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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: GraceZ who wrote (6536)11/3/2002 3:07:14 PM
From: Wyätt GwyönRead Replies (2) of 306849
 
Good grief, a look around SI shows that almost everyone does exactly the opposite.

while one could use any large group as a contrary indicator, something to keep in mind re SI is that there is a certain survivorship bias to bears here. that is, many of the permabulls had their portfolios totally wiped out, so they have less interest in posting. whereas bears have prospered, and thus have presumably maintained an interest in financial matters.

and on an ideological level, bears have had their convictions borne out by the market, while bulls have been refuted.

thus certain once-popular threads, like the G&K thread, are now but shadows compared to their glory days.

so it would be rather oversimplistic to say that everybody on SI has suddenly become a bear. rather, most who didn't become bears simply "went home".

this makes sense in society at large as well, where many people who never adjusted to the new climate have simply lost interest in the market. stocks are not such "cocktail party" fodder as before.

however, given that household ownership of stocks is now over 50% for the first time ever, i suspect the degree of nonparticipation will have to wax considerably before Darfot is done with his work.
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