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Non-Tech : Raptor's Den

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To: Jimbobwae who wrote (5088)	11/3/2002 4:56:32 PM
From: velociraptor_	Read Replies (3) of 10157

Here is a chart to show what I pointed out... raptorgroupresearch.com as you can see the 8/20 ema has twice this year given what appears to be the exact same type of bullish cross as circled in purple. Even the size and width between the lines are the same in each case as now. However, both prior times would have led someone to buying at the top. Sometimes moving averages work and sometimes they don't. I don't use them because they are not statistically reliable. In stochastics, I have outlined in blue and light blue the area we seem to be repeating. A zigzag up in light blue with the zag part coming off a higher low. This is then followed by a slow grind at the top that hovers for a little while. Towards the end, stochastics falls and bounces near the midline nly to turn back down maybe 2 days later. The last one is at a major top. If this pattern off the July lows is indeed a complete corrective pattern, it too will be a major top. Also, note how compressions patterns drawn at the purple lines always lead to failure because stochastics have not pulled back far enough to adequately work off overbought or oversold conditions. One thing of note as well, is that the volume pattern is exactly the same at the last top which leads me to believe that the current stochastics pattern and the last one will have the same outcome. The evidence I have presented are on tried and true indicators. Volume is not something you can change. It is always non confirmation of a trend when it falls and confirmation of the trend when it rises. The pattern in volume is very clear. The stochastics/MACD convergence signals I have presented have never failed so far because they only occur 2-3 times a year at the most. Throw in the clear divergences in MACD histogram and a lack of a bullish trend via the ADX since the July low and you have quite a combination of factors that all correlate to the same outcome.

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