Bush Averages 68% Approval This Quarter
Most recent average high, but not as high as previous quarters
by Jeffrey M. Jones
GALLUP NEWS SERVICE
PRINCETON, NJ -- Oct. 19 marks the end of another quarter -- the seventh -- in George W. Bush's presidency. For the quarter, Bush has averaged a 68% job approval rating. This average is high by historical standards, but is significantly lower than his three prior quarters, which rank among the highest ever. President Bush remains on pace for a yearly average above 70%, something accomplished only seven times in the last 56 years. The average for Bush's entire term as president so far is rivaled only by John Kennedy's 70% average from 1961-1963.
The most recent approval rating for Bush, taken from an Oct. 3-6 CNN/USA Today/Gallup Poll, stands at 67%. Twenty-eight percent of Americans disapprove of the job Bush is doing as president.
For the quarter that began on July 20 and ends on Oct. 19, Bush has averaged a 68% approval rating. This is down from the three prior quarters, which ranked as the second, fifth and 14th highest quarterly averages ever. The current quarter places in the top 19% of quarters dating back to 1945, placing 42nd out of 227.
Bush's quarterly average has declined about 6 points in each of the last three quarters.
Compared to other presidents' seventh-quarter averages, Bush ranks high. Only his father, the elder George Bush, had a higher average in his seventh quarter, at 69%. Lyndon Johnson, Dwight Eisenhower and John Kennedy are the other presidents with an average above 60% at this stage of their presidency.
Approval Averages During Seventh Quarter as President
President
Dates
Average
George H.W. Bush
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1990
69%
George W. Bush
Jul 20-Oct 19, 2002
68%
Lyndon Johnson
Apr 20-Jul 19, 1965
67%
Dwight Eisenhower
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1954
64%
John Kennedy
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1962
64%
Richard Nixon
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1970
55%
Gerald Ford
Jan 20-Apr 19, 1976
47%
Jimmy Carter
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1978
43%
Ronald Reagan
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1982
42%
Bill Clinton
Jul 20-Oct 19, 1994
41%
Harry Truman
Oct 20 1946-Jan 19, 1947
39%
Bush Still on Pace for Historic Year
For the year beginning on Jan. 20, Bush has so far averaged a 74% approval rating. This would place as the fourth-highest yearly average. Truman had the highest in 1945-46. Only seven times to date has a president had an average approval rating above 70% for a year in office.
Presidents With a Yearly Job Approval Average Above 70%, 1945-2001
President
Dates
Average
Truman
Apr 20, 1945-Jan 19, 1946
77.3%
Kennedy
Jan 19, 1961-Jan 19, 1962
76.4%
Johnson
Oct 20, 1963-Jan 19, 1964
76.3%
Johnson
Jan 20, 1964-Jan 19, 1965
73.4%
Eisenhower
Jan 20, 1955-Jan 19, 1956
72.1%
Kennedy
Jan 20, 1962-Jan 19, 1963
72.1%
Eisenhower
Jan 20, 1956-Jan 19, 1957
71.9%
Bush's average would be the highest for a president's second year in office. The previous best second year was the elder Bush's 67% average in 1990-1991. Other notable second-year averages are Eisenhower's 65% in 1954-1955 and Johnson's 65% in 1965-1966.
For his term to date, Bush has averaged a 70.6% approval rating. The best first-term average for a president was 74% for Johnson in 1963-1965 and 70% for Kennedy in 1961-1963. Kennedy has the highest average for a presidency, at 70.1%.
Survey Methods
These results are based on telephone interviews with randomly selected national samples of approximately 1,000 adults, 18 years and older, conducted in 2001 and 2002. For results based on these samples, one can say with 95 percent confidence that the maximum error attributable to sampling and other random effects is plus or minus 3 percentage points. In addition to sampling error, question wording and practical difficulties in conducting surveys can introduce error or bias into the findings of public opinion polls.
gallup.com
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