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Strategies & Market Trends : P&S and STO Death Blow's

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To: Jeff who started this subject11/3/2002 8:07:52 PM
From: Justa Werkenstiff  Read Replies (3) of 30712
 
Dollar decline in 2002 selected months...

April: -2.89%
May: -2.93%
June: - 5.1%

Morgan Stanley on May 31, 2002:

"Thus, a 3%-plus monthly correction would be rather sharp compared to our outlook, and would be statistically improbable based on history."

"The most that the USD index ‘lost’ in a single month was 5.39% in October 1985. In only 10 percent of the time, the loss on the USD index return was greater than 2.31%. Monthly losses greater than 3.01% occurred 5% of the time, and losses greater than 4.05% occurred only 1% of the time. It is subjective what level of ‘rarity’ we choose as the threshold for a ‘hard landing.’ If we arbitrarily choose the 5% threshold, then hard USD landings are those that show greater than 3% monthly losses on the Fed’s USD index."

morganstanley.com
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