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Pastimes : Clown-Free Zone... sorry, no clowns allowed

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To: yard_man who wrote (201950)	11/3/2002 9:05:41 PM
From: orkrious	Read Replies (2) of 436258

The Return of the Upside Blow-Off By James J. Cramer 11/03/2002 12:41 PM EST Click here for more stories by James J. Cramer Read More Click here for the latest from James J. Cramer The upside blow-off. You don't hear about it much, at least not in the last three years. But in 1999, when you mentioned "upside blow-off," people in the hedge-fund community knew exactly what you meant. You got the upside blow-off when so many people were leaning the wrong way that you could tell they would capitulate all at once and send the averages flying. This weekend, as I stared at page after page of underperforming hedge funds in the list that Barron's provides, I was struck by how few lost big money in the third quarter. That's great, if you were nimble enough to switch directions in October. But most weren't. You know what that means? It means that the majority of the hedge funds most likely are not long at all, and certainly not long enough -- not if we are going to have a week where Cisco (CSCO:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) is good; where the GOP takes the Senate; and where the Fed cuts, let alone a week where Microsoft (MSFT:Nasdaq - news - commentary - research - analysis) is off the hook from further prosecution. Those of you who aren't agnostic, who believe that the market always relates to the fundamentals, are most likely appalled by a professional mentioning something as "unprofessional" as the upside blow-off. To which, I reply, when I was a disciplined portfolio manager in the '80s, I too would have scoffed at such a thing. But then I saw the mutual funds lose all ability to play defense in the '90s, and I recognized that -- like Bob Dylan -- I was so much older then ... I am younger than that now.

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