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Strategies & Market Trends : Classic TA Workplace

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To: John Madarasz who wrote (58455)	11/3/2002 11:06:13 PM
From: Perspective	Read Replies (3) of 209892

Another thought on seasonality. History shows Sept-Oct as the two weakest months, when mutual funds have to lock in sales for capital losses. The really sharp bounce in the smallcaps has historically been January, after individual tax loss selling is done. I submit that there are fewer dollars driven by individual investors these days - everyone invests by proxy (through funds). That, coupled with increasing awareness of "favorable seasonality" should act to shift the most favorable month earlier, out of January and toward November. If the seasonals are shifting earlier and earlier, and given the rally that has already taken place, I think seasonals aren't going to be much help to the bulls. BC

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