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Strategies & Market Trends : The Residential Real Estate Crash Index
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To: reaper who wrote (6565)11/3/2002 11:48:09 PM
From: ildRead Replies (1) of 306849
 
Yes, that was my question, thanx. What is "sustained decline" in your book? 5% or 50% off the latest peak prices?
In my local area (Orange County, CA) houses appreciated 100% over the last 5 years. I expect at least 20-30% retrace from today's prices. It will take 5 years for the prices to somewhat stabilize with hi-end houses taking the biggest hit. I think the mortgages will somewhat decouple from 10 year note because of bigger risk associated with mortgages in declining RE. But on the other hand the Fed may aggressively start buying MBS.

Do you think the Fed will cut 50 points on Wednesday? Roach and McCulley have called for aggressive cut(s).
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