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Technology Stocks : Wind River going up, up, up!
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To: Peter Church who wrote (10158)11/4/2002 11:06:12 AM
From: Ausdauer  Read Replies (1) of 10309
 
Peter, the analysis posted this morning...

...leaves me with two questions. First, if the market for RTOS is really $23 billion,
then this must assume that many companies will scrap in-house projects in order to
purchase standardized products. It would seem that if the market really were this huge
that one of the companies specialized in embedded OS's would have multibillion dollar
sales, or that a group of companies in this area would report multibillion dollars in sales.
Since this is not the case one must assume that $23 billion is a gross overestimation
or an extremely optimistic assessment of the market potential.

Second, the article states that the RTOS segment is commoditized. In my mind this
means that the products available are essentially equivalent and the main selling
point is pricing. If pricing is the sole determinant of sales, and not features, then
WIND was forced into the current sales model. This type of move was predicted in some of
the very detailed discussions on the Yahoo board.

Basically, is WIND's move a stroke of genius or a desperation move in a down market?

I think it is the latter, but this is not to say that it will fail.
It would be safe to say that they would be happy with, say, 20% of $23 billion.

Aus
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