Began selling at 9.7
Will sell more, in small increments, planning on being out completely by 20. 20 would represent a near-quadrupling off the recent lows. We could do that, if we get another 6-month rally in the market (not a prediction, just contingency planning). We've already had a double off the lows, and are due for a pullback of at least 25%.
I was seriously disappointed by the various conference calls I listened to, this past earnings season. Everyone was saying, "demand softened abruptly in the last 1-3 months, the recovery is still in the indefinite future". I conclude that IT budgets are not going to be increased, until late 2003 at the earliest. I am also seriously worried that a downturn in housing will cause the long-awaited fall in consumer spending. So, I have recently established short positions in:
housing (CMH) at 12
consumer spending (WMT) at 55
overvalued tech (QCOM) at 36
Will short CSCO at 15, AMAT at 20, if we get there. |
