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Politics : Stockman Scott's Political Debate Porch
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To: stockman_scott who wrote (8780)11/4/2002 4:29:57 PM
From: Jim Willie CB  Read Replies (2) of 89467
 
regardless of Fed Action, I expect stock selloff

no action: sell off due to perceived refusal to support the economy and stocks, as we perilously slide into recession once again

1/4 pt: sell off due to realization of its small impact, esp in light of 11 previous rate cuts that have left us vulnerable to a Double Dip (which is the norm, despite bullshit press/media utterances)

1/2 pt: sell off due to realization that the Fed has essentially used its entire quiver of cuts, with tragic little to show for its blunt tool approach in managing the world's largest economy

I regard the 1/2 pt decision as the most ominous for stocks

if this big cut, then the dollar resumes its descent of another 10-13%, possibly quickly, showing its extremely poor competitive stance visavis euro bonds (at 3.25%), taking stocks with them as foreigners depart in larger droves

this mindless rally has offered foreigners a nice opportunity to exit at a higher price, thank you they say

I believe the dollar will be leading stocks now
at some point dictated once again by the Mortgage Backed Securities, the TENS will see a limit on lower bound yield, which will signal the bond TENS to cease & desist rallying

the USdollar is soon to be moving to CENTER STAGE
the USdollar will be the ultimate arbiter !!!

today the dollar gave back all gains, and has stubbornly refused over the past two weeks to join in the rally fun
today gold held its ground as stocks gave up the Dow +210
today gold miners reversed to register small gains
/ jim
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