<< The S&P Stock Rating posted by Gottfried I think corresponds to a stock valuation issue. It's not often one sees a sell rating on a profitable company. The other news that I posted concerns is debt alone. I think we all grasp that now. Anyway, AMAT becomes a leaner company after the layoffs. Unfortunately the write offs that go with them will have to be something of a burden to the company financially. S&P addresses this in their debt rating which I posted. Apparently they see it as not enough of a problem to change their rating of the debt.>>
Yes, I am up to speed now on what the different articles were saying. However, let me follow-up with some data from First Call and S&P on projected FY03 earnings estimates.
First Call presently has a current mean estimate of 0.36 for FY03 based on estimates from 26 brokers. The minimum estimate is 0.19 and the maximum estimate is 0.65.
S&P, in an overview assessment dated 14 October, states the following:
<<We expect sales to fall 30% in FY 02(Oct), following a 24% drop in FY 01, ending the worst semiconductor industry downturn ever. We then expect sales to increase 9% in FY 03, as chipmakers begin to increase capacity. AMAT, which has a record of emerging as a stronger competitor after each downturn, will spend over $1 billion on R&D in FY 02. In addition to maintaining its leading positions in PVD and CVD(thin film deposition) tools, the company is gaining design-in wins in etch, CMP and flat panel display PVD tools. Of particular note is its strength in copper interconnect deposition, where it is integrating its tools to form modules with guaranteed results. In addition, AMAT is expanding its services business, and moving aggressively into China. However, due to recent slowing in capital spending by chipmakers, we project FY 02 EPS of only $0.19, excluding $0.04 of restructuring and other special charges, followed by an increase to $0.26 in FY 03.>>
Note the low 9 percent sales increase projected for FY 03 from the obviously very small base occurring in FY 02. Also, instead of the consensus mean of 0.39 for FY 03, they have the number pegged at 0.26.
Don |
