Nov. 3, 2002, 2:51PM
Poll puts Perry in double-digit lead
Cornyn maintains slim advantage over Kirk for Senate
By JOHN WILLIAMS
URL:http://www.chron.com/cs/CDA/story.hts/topstory2/1645170
Copyright 2002 Houston Chronicle Political Writer
POLL RESULTS
• U.S. SENATE
John Cornyn (R) 45%
Ron Kirk (D) 39%
Undecided 10%
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• GOVERNOR
Rick Perry (R) 49%
Tony Sanchez (D) 37%
Undecided 9%
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• LT. GOVERNOR
David Dewhurst (R) 38%
John Sharp (D) 42%
Undecided 15%
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• ATTORNEY GENERAL
Greg Abbott (R) 41%
Kirk Watson (D) 33%
Undecided 21%
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None of these totals include include "neither/no answer" responses. Margin of error is plus or minus 3.9 percentage points.
The University of Houston Center for Public Policy and Rice University School of Social Sciences conducted the telephone survey of 656 registered voters who said they likely will vote.
Democrat Tony Sanchez's hopes of becoming the state's first Hispanic governor appear dim as Republican Gov. Rick Perry holds a double-digit lead in the final days of a vicious campaign, according to a Houston Chronicle/KHOU-TV poll.
Perry's 12-percentage-point lead is three points higher than it was seven weeks ago, as he has continued to pound with advertising associating Sanchez's failed Tesoro Savings & Loan with murderous drug dealers.
"Tesoro just won't go away," said pollster Bob Stein, a political science professor at Rice University. "It's the one issue that moves voters away."
Meanwhile, Democrat Ron Kirk remains within striking distance in the race to replace retiring Republican Phil Gramm in the U.S. Senate, as he is six percentage points behind Republican John Cornyn.
The only major statewide race that appears close is for lieutenant governor, where Republican David Dewhurst's six-point lead of a month ago has evaporated. He is in a statistical dead heat with Democrat John Sharp, who polls at 41.5 percent to Dewhurst's 38.3 percent -- within the poll's 3.9-percentage-point margin of error.
In a lower-profile race, Republican Greg Abbott, a former Texas Supreme Court justice, has an eight-point lead over Democrat Kirk Watson, the former Austin mayor, in their bid to succeed Cornyn as state attorney general. One in five voters is undecided on that contest.
The University of Houston Center for Public Policy and Rice University School of Social Sciences conducted the telephone survey of 656 registered voters who said they likely will vote.
Pollster Richard Murray, a political science professor at the University of Houston, said the governor's race is all but over.
Sanchez's only chance of winning is to do a brilliant job of getting Hispanic voters to the polls Tuesday, Murray said.
"Even with a big push in Hispanic areas, Sanchez has a major, major hurdle to clear," Murray said. "It looks like Perry remains governor."
Sanchez spokesman Mark Sanders disputed the poll numbers, saying the campaign's internal polling has the race "at a dead heat."
Sanchez said Saturday that the poll fails to reflect the strength of his support.
"The polls are not taking into account the hundreds of thousands of new voters with no voting history," he said. "The polls are not taking into account the turnout, which is going to be record-setting.
"This will be historic. Counties like Harris County are turning out more voters in early voting than in a presidential election year when George W. (Bush) ran. And just as importantly, the best estimate we have is we are either even with the Republicans or slightly ahead of them in terms of who's coming to vote. That is very, very important, because since early voting started, the Republicans have always beaten the Democrats by 15 or 20 points."
In the last Houston Chronicle / KHOU-TV poll completed in the middle of September, Perry held a 46-37 lead after a Perry commercial detailed how drug money was laundered at Tesoro.
During 1983 and 1984, Sanchez's thrift was used by Mexican drug lords to launder $25 million. As federal agents closed in on the money launderers, Tesoro wired $9 million to Panama. Two federal judges later ruled that Tesoro acted properly, and Sanchez has said he was not aware of the drug money placed in his thrift.
Since then, Perry launched another commercial telling how the same money launderers were responsible for the torture and slaying of federal Drug Enforcement Administration agent Enrique "Kiki" Camarena.
Sanchez has called the ad sleazy, and his supporters said it was racist.
Perry has said the ad is factual.
Stein said the commercials have created doubt among many voters, especially white male Democrats.
Only 69 percent of those who identify themselves as Democrats intend to vote for Sanchez. In contrast, 86 percent who identify themselves as Republicans plan to vote for Perry.
"White Democrats have left him and have not come back," Stein said of Sanchez.
In the Senate race, Cornyn, the state attorney general, has virtually the same lead as he did in September when he led 42 percent to 36 percent.
Murray and Stein predicted a closer Senate race because polling often does not accurately reflect the voting patterns of black voters. Blacks are expected to turn out in strong numbers to support Kirk, the former Dallas mayor who would be the state's first black U.S. senator.
"This is a dead heat," Kirk said on the campaign trail Saturday in response to the poll results. "It's a tight race, but we're going to win it with turnout on Election Day."
On Monday, Cornyn is expected to get more help from the White House as President Bush heads a GOP political rally in Dallas.
In the race for lieutenant governor, Dewhurst had a 41 percent to 35 percent lead in September after spending more than $20 million on his campaign.
The current lieutenant governor, Republican Bill Ratliff, is running for re-election to the state Senate, opting not to seek election as lieutenant governor. The lieutenant governor is presiding officer of the Senate. Ratliff's colleagues elected him to the post after Perry rose from lieutenant governor to governor in 2000 when then-Gov. Bush was elected president.
Dewhurst spokesman Nick Voinis said that other polling indicates the Republican is ahead. "Our supporters of energized Texans are responding favorably to the Dewhurst message," he said.
Chronicle reporters R.G. Ratcliffe and Rachel Graves contributed to this story. |
