| The Soviet Union did not suffer economic collapse, it suffered political collapse. Now, economics was a big factor, due to consumer dissatisfaction, but part of the reason for that was that they were spending about a quarter of GDP on their military establishment, and we were spending about a fifth of that. Thus, the prospect of a big economic squeeze was worrisome. On the other hand, the deficiencies of the system were partially made up by an extensive black market, so that GDP was under-reported due to the underground nature of a lot of economic exchange. It is therefore hard to predict what might have happened in alternate scenarios. It is, however, almost certain that without strong strategic competition, there would have been less pressure for reform, in the end, and that without a good deal of corruption, the system would have teetered moreso. How long the Soviet Union could have limped along as a threat is anybody's guess. If they had adopted Chinese marketization, while retaining political control, they might have gone on forever. I stand by my statements. |
